The hottest ihs2016 TV panel demand decreases and

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IHS pointed out that due to the inventory adjustment of TV manufacturers and the revision of 2015 business plan, the LCD TV panel industry has entered a difficult period since the third quarter. The LCD panel supply chain suddenly turned to oversupply, and the industry also tended to decline week by week, and it can now reach the maximum force or stretch curve period. This change has seriously affected the profitability of panel manufacturers

ihs predicts that this dilemma will continue until the end of 2015. The panel inventory adjustment will continue until the first half of 2016, because the production capacity is still going online, especially in China. On the other hand, global retail stagnates, and the TV renewal cycle slows down. In 2016, the LCD TV market will still not show strong growth

in the first half of this year, panel manufacturers exported a large number of panels along with 1 Sheng bang. Although panel prices fell in the second half of this year, panel manufacturers still did not stop there. In the third quarter, they maintained their original capacity utilization and produced more panels; At the same time, quickly reduce the panel price to stimulate TV brands to continue to purchase panels to prepare for peak season and short-term demand. These factors will have a negative impact on the demand for LCD TV panels in 2016

ihs' latest display long term demand forecast tracker indicates that the demand for LCD TV panels in 2016 is expected to be about 257 million, a decrease of 3% from 265 million in 2015 (as shown in the figure below); The agency analyzed that the reasons for the decline in panel demand were the continuous control of inventory by TV brand manufacturers and the uncertainty of the global economy

2016 TV panel demand forecast

ihs analyzes the reasons for the decline in panel demand in 2016 as follows:

· since 2012, panel shipments have exceeded LCD TV unit shipments for three consecutive years, and the excess ranges have reached double digits (12 ~ the rapid expansion of production capacity has led to a 13% decline in diaphragm prices), which indicates that panel inventory has been surplus

· TV brand manufacturers began to reduce their 2015 sales plan. Due to the global economic downturn, TV brands will face more and more uncertainties in 2016, so they will be more conservative

· in 2015, panel manufacturers encouraged TV brands to continuously purchase panels, hoping to achieve a virtuous circle, but in fact, it increased more uncertainty in 2016

· panel prices fell in the second half of 2015. In order to reduce losses, panel manufacturers began to change the product structure. Panel manufacturers plan to produce more profitable large-size panels, with a reduction of 32 or 23. 6-inch and other small-size panels, because small-size panels have no profitability

· TV brand manufacturers will be more conservative in panel inventory management in 2016

· backlight module system (BMS) supply chain management has been mature and stable, especially for Chinese TV manufacturers; They no longer need to store a large number of LCD TV open cells to meet the delivery time of backlight and chassis supply chain. Moreover, their panel procurement is no longer too radical, and there is no need to build too much panel inventory

· due to China's investment and capacity expansion in Taiwan and South Korea, the TV panel capacity is still growing, and 2016 will still be a year of panel oversupply

although LCD TV shipments in 2016 will decline in quantity, they will increase in area. IHS' latest report predicts that the demand area of LCD TV panels will reach 125.9 million square meters in 2016, an increase of 3% over 122 million square meters in 2015 (see the figure below). Similar to 2011, IHS expects this to be a year of oversupply. If OLED TV panel area is included, the annual demand area growth in 2016 is expected to reach 4%

2016 TV panel demand forecast (area)

IHS analyzes the reasons for the increase in LCD TV panel demand in 2016 as follows:

· due to the growth of 40-43 inch panels, 32 inch panel shipments are expected to fall from 90million in 2014 and 2015 to less than 80million in 2016. The price of 32 inch open cell fell, causing panel manufacturers to reduce the output of 32 inches and shift their production capacity to larger panels

· the shipment volume of 40~43 inch panels is expected to increase from 68million in 2015 to 73million in 2016. 40 and 43 inch panels are suitable for 6th and 7th generation line factories, not 8th generation line, unless the panel manufacturer uses MMG (Multi Size Mixed cutting) technology. But in the past few years, China has built many eighth generation line factories, but not the sixth or seventh generation line. Chinese panel manufacturers must devote more efforts to product integration, otherwise 32 inch panels will weaken their profitability

it is estimated that the shipment of inch panels will increase from 27million in 2015 to 30017 in 2016 Fixture configuration: customize the fixture according to the requirements of the user's product samples, one pay of 0 million pieces; The shipment volume of 50-55 inch panels will increase from 37million in 2015 to 41million in 2016; The shipment volume of 58-65 inch panels will increase from 10million in 2015 to 12million in 2016

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